{"id":4108,"date":"2026-05-17T21:07:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T13:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/?p=4108"},"modified":"2026-05-18T18:11:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T10:11:12","slug":"%e6%9c%80%e5%8f%8d%e7%9b%b4%e8%a7%89%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%9a%e7%90%86%ef%bc%9a1%e4%b8%87%e5%a4%9a%e4%ba%ba%e4%b8%93%e9%97%a8%e5%86%99%e4%bf%a1%e5%8f%8d%e9%a9%b3%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e4%b8%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/?p=4108","title":{"rendered":"\u6700\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5b9a\u7406\uff1a1\u4e07\u591a\u4eba\u4e13\u95e8\u5199\u4fe1\u53cd\u9a73\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u667a\u5546\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5168\u9519\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_1-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_1-6.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_1-6-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/photos\/abundance-of-closed-blue-doors-near-opened-doorway-with-glowing-light-representing-new-opportunity-and-changes-on-light-background-in-studio-3d-rendering-OwPMd_Vnods\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">unsplash+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">\u64b0\u6587 | \u738b\u6631<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">\u5ba1\u6821 | \u4e0d\u5468<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u8c61\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u53c2\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u3002\u4f60\u9762\u524d\u6709\u4e09\u6247\u95e8\uff0c\u4e00\u6247\u95e8\u540e\u9762\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u6247\u95e8\u540e\u9762\u662f\u5c71\u7f8a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u9009\u4e2d\u90a3\u6247\u6709\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u95e8\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97\u6c7d\u8f66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u5148\u9009\u4e86\u4e00\u6247\u95e8\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u5728\u5f00\u5956\u524d\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4ed6\u77e5\u9053\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u54ea\u6247\u95e8\u7684\u540e\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u4e00\u6247\u4f60\u6ca1\u9009\u7684\u95e8\uff0c\u90a3\u6247\u95e8\u540e\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u53ea\u5c71\u7f8a\u3002\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u7ed9\u4e86\u4f60\u4e00\u6b21\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a\u201c\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u628a\u9009\u62e9\u6362\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u6247\u6ca1\u6709\u6253\u5f00\u7684\u95e8\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b\u4e24\u6247\u95e8\u4e86\uff0c\u4e00\u6247\u6709\u8f66\uff0c\u4e00\u6247\u6ca1\u8f66\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5e94\u8be5\u90fd\u662f50%\uff0c\u6ca1\u5fc5\u8981\u6362\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e5f\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u843d\u5165\u4e86\u4e09\u95e8\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u4e14\u6700\u8fdd\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<strong>\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u5e94\u8be5\u6362\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6362\u95e8\u540e\u8d62\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f2\/3\uff0c\u4e0d\u6362\u53ea\u67091\/3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u51fa\u5904\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u300b1959\u5e74\u66fe\u520a\u767b\u8fc7\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u56da\u72af\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u4e09\u95e8\u95ee\u9898\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u7248\u672c\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u89c6\u6e38\u620f\u8282\u76ee\u300a\u4e00\u9524\u5b9a\u97f3\u300b\uff08<em>Let\u2019s Make a Deal<\/em>\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6863\u8282\u76ee1963\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\u9996\u64ad\uff0c60\u523070\u5e74\u4ee3\u7531\u8499\u63d0\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\uff08Monty Hall\uff09\u4e3b\u6301\uff0c\u5e38\u8ba9\u9009\u624b\u5728\u51e0\u6247\u95e8\u548c\u9690\u85cf\u5956\u54c1\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u82f1\u6587\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e09\u95e8\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u53eb\u8499\u63d0\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u95ee\u9898\uff08Monty Hall problem\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1990\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7545\u9500\u6742\u5fd7<em>Parade<\/em>\u5728\u4e13\u680f\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u8005\u739b\u4e3d\u83b2\u00b7\u6c83\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u4e07\u7279\uff08Marilyn vos Savant\uff0c\u5409\u5c3c\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u7eaa\u5f55IQ\u6700\u9ad8\u4fdd\u6301\u8005\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u5e94\u8be5\u6362\u95e8\uff0c\u4e2d\u5956\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u4ece1\/3\u53d8\u62102\/3\u3002<strong>\u7ed3\u679c\u5f15\u6765\u4e86\u5927\u7ea61\u4e07\u5c01\u8bfb\u8005\u6765\u4fe1\uff0c\u7eb7\u7eb7\u53cd\u9a73\u5979\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4e4f\u6765\u81ea\u535a\u58eb\u6216\u6765\u81ea\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u6765\u4fe1\u3002<\/strong>\u5c31\u8fde\u77e5\u540d\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u65af\uff08Paul Erdos\uff09\u4e5f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u2014\u2014\u76f4\u5230\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u8bc1\u660e\uff1a\u786e\u5b9e\u5e94\u8be5\u6362\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"font-size: 24px; text-decoration: overline; caret-color: rgb(8,124,186); color: rgb(8,124,186);\"><strong><br><br>\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/span><\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u56de\u4e8b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u9009\u4e2d\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u67091\/3\uff0c\u67092\/3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u5269\u4e0b\u4e24\u6247\u95e8\u91cc\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u6c7d\u8f66\u5728\u54ea\u6247\u95e8\u540e\u9762\uff0c<strong>\u4ed6\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5e2e\u4f60\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u6247\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u95e8\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5269\u4e0b\u4e24\u6247\u95e82\/3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e86\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6247\u95e8\u4e0a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6216\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u6362\u4e00\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u4e0d\u6362\u95e8\u80fd\u8d62\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u9009\u4e2d\u4e86\u6c7d\u8f66\uff0c\u6982\u73871\/3\uff1b\u6362\u95e8\u80fd\u8d62\uff0c\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4f60\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u9009\u4e2d\u5c71\u7f8a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6982\u73872\/3\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u7b54\u6848\uff0c<strong>\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u5e2e\u4f60\u5f00\u95e8\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_2-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_2-4.png 600w, https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/wechat_image_2-4-281x300.png 281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">\u53c2\u8d5b\u8005\u6700\u521d\u9009\u62e9\u65f6\u67091\/3\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u6982\u7387\u9009\u62e9\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001A\u7f8a\u548cB\u7f8a\uff0c\u8f6c\u6362\u540e\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u4e3a2\/3\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1awikipedia<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8fd8\u662f\u60f3\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e2e\u4f60\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ec8\u6781\u6740\u62db\uff1a<strong>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u548cB\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4e00\u5219\u5b9a\u7406\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P(A|B) = P(B|A)\u00b7P(A) \/ P(B)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u4e2dA\u548cB\u90fd\u662f\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0cP(A)\u548cP(B)\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u3001\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cP(A|B)\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cP(B|A)\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u63d0\u793a\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u6570\u5b66\u8fc7\u654f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u5212\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u6807\u9898\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e09\u95e8\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4e09\u6247\u95e8\u7f16\u53f7\u5206\u522b\u4e3a1\u30012\u30013\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u9009\u62e9\u4e861\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f00\u4e862\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c2\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u53ea\u5c71\u7f8a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u65f6\u6c7d\u8f66\u57281\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5e94\u8be5\u8fd9\u6837\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P(1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66|\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8) = P(\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8|1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66)\u00b7P(1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66) \/ P(\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u9879\u4e00\u9879\u5206\u6790\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P(\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8|1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66)\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u8fd9\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f003\u53f7\u95e8\u3002\u4ed6\u968f\u673a\u9009\u4e00\u6247\u5f00\uff0c\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f1\/2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P(1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66)\u662f1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5c31\u662f1\/3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P(\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8)\u5219\u6bd4\u8f83\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u8981\u8003\u8651\u6c7d\u8f66\u57281\u30012\u30013\u53f7\u95e8\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6c7d\u8f66\u57281\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u53d8\u6210\u4e86P(\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8|1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66)\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1\/2\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6c7d\u8f66\u57282\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6253\u5f00\u8fd9\u6247\u80cc\u540e\u6709\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u95e8\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u4e3a0\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6c7d\u8f66\u57283\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u53ea\u80fd\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u53ea\u80fd\u4ece2\u30013\u53f7\u95e8\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\u4e00\u6247\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6253\u5f00\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u76843\u53f7\u95e8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1\/3\uff0c\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u603b\u6982\u7387\u662f1\/2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee3\u5165\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u77e5\u9053P(1\u53f7\u95e8\u540e\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66|\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6253\u5f002\u53f7\u95e8) = 1\/3\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5e94\u8be5\u6362\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"font-size: 24px; text-decoration: overline; caret-color: rgb(8,124,186); color: rgb(8,124,186);\"><strong><br><br>\u5931\u51c6\u7684\u611f\u89c9<\/strong><\/span><\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6d89\u53ca\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u91cc\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u60a3\u75c5\u7387\u662f\u5343\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5389\u5bb3\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\uff1a\u771f\u6b63\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u91cc\uff0c99%\u4f1a\u88ab\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\uff1b\u6ca1\u6709\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u67091%\u4f1a\u88ab\u8bef\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e86\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4ed6\u5f97\u75c5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5f97\u75c5\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u68c0\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe99%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8ba4\u771f\u7b97\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u73b0\u5728\u67091000\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u67091\u4e2a\u60a3\u75c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u68c0\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5927\u6982\u7387\u662f\u9633\u6027\u3002\u800c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684999\u4e2a\u5065\u5eb7\u4eba\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u68c0\u6d4b\u67091%\u7684\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u670910\u4eba\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5047\u9633\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u670911\u4f8b\u9633\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u67091\u4f8b\u771f\u9633\u6027\u548c10\u4f8b\u5047\u9633\u6027\u3002<strong>\u6240\u4ee5\u54ea\u6015\u68c0\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u60a3\u75c5\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u53ea\u67091\/11\u3002<\/strong>\uff08\u7406\u8bba\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u7ec6\u5fae\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u81f4\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5047\u9633\u6027\u6096\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u89c9\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c<strong>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7528\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u6781\u6613\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u524d\u7f6e\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6982\u7387\u504f\u89c1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2022\u5e74\u672b\u52302023\u5e74\u521dChatGPT\u7684\u7206\u706b\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u5199\u5c0f\u8bba\u6587\u5b9e\u5728\u662f\u592a\u7b80\u5355\u4e86\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8bba\u6587\u67e5\u91cd\u5de5\u5177\u7eb7\u7eb7\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86AI\u68c0\u6d4b\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5f53\u65f6\u8bba\u6587\u68c0\u67e5\u5de5\u5177Turnitin\u5c31\u5ba3\u79f0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f4e\u81f31%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5f53\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8303\u5fb7\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u5b98\u65b9<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vanderbilt.edu\/brightspace\/2023\/08\/16\/guidance-on-ai-detection-and-why-were-disabling-turnitins-ai-detector\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u516c\u544a<\/a>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u7981\u7528Turnitin\u7684AI\u751f\u6210\u68c0\u6d4b\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8303\u5fb7\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u6bcf\u5e74\u5927\u7ea6\u4f1a\u63d0\u4ea475 000\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c<strong>\u5373\u4fbf\u53ea\u67091%\u7684\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u6709750\u7bc7\u5b66\u751f\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u8bef\u4f1a<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5e94750\u6b21\u53ef\u80fd\u6000\u7591\u3001\u7533\u8fa9\u3001\u6210\u7ee9\u6263\u7559\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5b66\u672f\u8bda\u4fe1\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u8303\u5fb7\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u7981\u7528AI\u751f\u6210\u68c0\u6d4b\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u662f\u7ef4\u62a4\u5e08\u751f\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52302026\u5e74\uff0cTurnitin\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6307\u5357\u4e5f\u5728\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u5c06AI\u5199\u4f5c\u62a5\u544a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5b66\u751f\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u7406\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u8bef\u5224\u4eba\u7c7b\u5199\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6f0f\u6389AI\u5199\u4f5c\u30022024\u5e74\u8d77\uff0cTurnitin\u8fd8\u628a1%\u523019%\u7684\u4f4e\u5206\u533a\u95f4\u9690\u85cf\u6210\u661f\u53f7\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u663e\u793a\u5177\u4f53\u5206\u6570\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8bef\u8bfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u54ea\u6015\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe99%\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\uff0c\u5148\u522b\u6025\u7740\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e5f\u522b\u6025\u7740\u5426\u5b9a\u3002<strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bc1\u636e\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b83\u6765\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u539f\u672c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<span style=\"color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px;\">\u53c2\u8003\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<br>\n\u300a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u300b\uff0c\u6c64\u59c6\u00b7\u5947\u5f17\u65af\uff0c\u4e2d\u4fe1\u51fa\u7248\u96c6\u56e2<br>\nhttps:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/blog\/observations\/lets-make-a-deal-revisiting-the-monty-hall-problem\/<br>\nhttps:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/science\/article\/pigeons-outperform-humans-at-the-monty-hall-dilemma<br>\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Bayes%27_theorem<br>\nhttps:\/\/www.vanderbilt.edu\/brightspace\/2023\/08\/16\/guidance-on-ai-detection-and-why-were-disabling-turnitins-ai-detector\/<br>\nhttps:\/\/guides.turnitin.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/22774058814093-Using-the-AI-Writing-Report<\/span>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aunsplash+ \u64b0\u6587 | \u738b\u6631 \u5ba1\u6821 | \u4e0d\u5468 \u60f3\u8c61\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u53c2\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u3002\u4f60\u9762\u524d\u6709\u4e09\u6247\u95e8\uff0c\u4e00\u6247 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","category-lead"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4108"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4111,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4108\/revisions\/4111"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.huanqiukexue.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}